The NFL playoffs enter the divisional round this weekend, where the remaining eight teams will vie for a place in their conference championship games. Bettors can find enticing opportunities, irrespective of which teams advance.
According to West Virginia sportsbooks, both DraftKings and FanDuel are currently favoring the home teams in the four games that will bring their winners one step closer to Super Bowl LIV.
NFL playoffs betting: breaking down all four games
The degree of favoritism towards home teams varies among books, favoring all four teams. For instance, WV sports betting sites show a greater preference for the two AFC home teams compared to the Green Bay Packers, with a margin that is more than double.
Likewise, certain games offer more favorable betting prospects compared to others. Despite this, we will analyze all four games. The following is a breakdown of the weekend’s action, listed in chronological order based on their start times.
Minnesota at San Francisco, 3:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 11
The chances of the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Minnesota Vikings and securing a home NFC Championship contest next week are favored by sportsbooks in West Virginia.
According to Nate Weitzer from The Lines, the San Francisco 49ers have faced challenges in covering the spread in their home games this season. Weitzer reveals that their record stands at 3-4-1.
However, it wasn’t due to a lack of scoring touchdowns. In fact, San Francisco had a higher average points per game at home than any other NFL team, and in five out of those eight games, the total score exceeded the Over.
With the 49ers’ upcoming opponent, the Over becomes even more enticing as an option. Out of the 17 games that Minnesota has played this season, the Over has been the result in nine of them.
Despite this, the Vikings showcased an even higher level of mastery when facing the spread during this season. Minnesota’s record stood at 10-7 (including the recent wild-card game) against the spread, with a 5-4 record on the road.
The statistics support and strengthen these patterns. On average, Minnesota’s rushing offense ranked fourth in the NFL, accumulating 136 yards per game. In contrast, San Francisco’s defense allowed nearly 109 yards per game at home throughout the season.
Keeping pace may not be a major challenge for the 49ers, but they will approach it differently. The Vikings’ secondary has struggled in away games, except for the recent one. However, the 49ers’ aerial offense has the potential to take advantage of this weakness.
If both teams perform at their best, the total score in this game could quickly reach 44.5 points. Moreover, placing a bet on Minnesota with the points is a fascinating choice.
Tennessee at Baltimore, 7:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 11
The Tennessee Titans could potentially be a stronger contender than the Vikings, considering their exceptional ground game. With the NFL’s leading ground attack and a remarkable performance last week, a strong running game could greatly assist them in securing a road victory.
Juan Carlos Blanco, from The Lines, highlights the Baltimore Ravens’ impressive performance at home this season. However, it is worth noting that in four of their home victories, the margin of victory exceeded 10 points.
At West Virginia mobile sportsbooks, the Titans with the points is the most appealing choice in this contest. Last week, Tennessee’s running back Derrick Henry and his offensive line remained unaffected when confronted with a statistically dominant New England Patriots’ defense on their own home turf.
The Titans’ past performance supports this statement. Tennessee had a 6-3 against the spread (ATS) record on the road this year, including last week’s game, whereas Baltimore only managed a 4-4 ATS record in home games.
In order to secure a victory of almost 10 points against the Titans, the Ravens must accomplish two challenging tasks: slowing down Henry, which no other team has achieved, and ensuring their own offense performs exceptionally well. However, it is important to note that the Titans may not make this task easy for them.
Tennessee ranked among the top three teams in conceding the fewest points during away games this season, allowing a mere average of 17.6 points to their opponents. Based on these statistics, the current spread on the game seems to be overly generous towards Baltimore.
Saturday’s action has come to an end, but the NFL playoffs betting carries on to the next day. The upcoming two games will serve as a further assessment of whether the bye week provided an advantage to the home favorites.
Houston at Kansas City, 2:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 12
The opportunity for the Kansas City Chiefs to host an AFC Championship game for the second year in a row arises if they can defeat the Texans and if the Titans cause an upset. Before setting their sights on reaching their first Super Bowl in 51 years, the Chiefs must first overcome the challenge of facing a Houston Texans team that excels at controlling possession.
Last week, Weitzer remembers how the Texans utilized their running game to dominate the clock and secure a victory in their wild-card game. Given Kansas City’s formidable offense and their struggle in preventing opponents from scoring in the red zone, Houston’s most advantageous approach would be to minimize the duration of the game.
Based on our theme, the statistics indicate that it would be wise to bet on the Texans with the points. Houston has shown a strong performance, going 6-3 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog. On the other hand, the Chiefs’ record ATS under head coach Andy Reid is not particularly impressive.
Under Reid’s leadership, the Kansas team has recorded a 25-27-2 against the spread (ATS) record when playing as the favorite at home. In playoff matches within that timeframe, the Chiefs have only managed a 2-5 ATS record.
Additionally, the Texans should enter with a significant amount of confidence, as they have previously emerged victorious against the Kansas City team on their own turf earlier this season.
However, the Chiefs could potentially take advantage of Reid’s impressive track record of winning after a bye week. If they manage to tire out their opponent who played an overtime game last week, they may advance, although maybe not with a 9.5-point lead.
Seattle at Green Bay, 5:40 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 12
Although the smallest spread occurs during the weekend’s nightcap, it doesn’t make taking the Seattle Seahawks with the points any less appealing.
According to Weitzer, Seattle has participated in 13 games this season that were determined by a single score, emerging victorious in 11 of them. Furthermore, when quarterback Russell Wilson has led the team as road underdogs, the Seahawks have an impressive record of 19-9-2 ATS.
Furthermore, Seattle stands out by consistently performing strongly against teams that have recently had byes. The Seahawks have an impressive record of 17 wins, 2 losses, and 1 tie against such opponents in their last 20 matchups, as per ATS statistics.
On away games, Wilson has displayed exceptional efficiency. Not only has he achieved an impressive completion rate of almost 71% on his pass attempts, but he has also thrown four times more touchdowns than interceptions.
Running back Marshawn Lynch, known as the Seahawks’ ultimate game-changer, holds significant importance in this matchup. His exceptional performance in previous playoffs is widely acknowledged, while the Packers’ run defense at home games lacks a formidable presence.
Although Aaron Rodgers’ experience as the Green Bay quarterback might contribute to Seattle’s sixth consecutive divisional road game loss, the outcome of this game could ultimately be determined by a simple field goal.
West Virginia sportsbooks appear excessively positive about the margins of victory for home teams in this round of NFL playoffs betting.
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